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Why we need to think before we build
- Thread starter biffvernon
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tom.harrigan
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I'm losing track of all these scares. Are we drowning, boiling, freezing, getting blown away, or being irradiated? Perhaps it's the dreaded diabolical equilibrium changing?
Just because the recent headline scares in this thread have turned out to be of dubious nature, doesn't mean that we're not all doomed. Just because GW stopped in 1998 doesn't mean we're not all going to suffer some other calamity and soon. I desperately want to join the moral high ground with everyone else! It's so lonely here on the intellectual high ground! The trouble is, the only way off the intellectual high ground is via a proper scare that's not only redolent with misanthropy, but based in fact.
I enjoyed this video, particularly the second half:
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-6393326099470628258
Just because the recent headline scares in this thread have turned out to be of dubious nature, doesn't mean that we're not all doomed. Just because GW stopped in 1998 doesn't mean we're not all going to suffer some other calamity and soon. I desperately want to join the moral high ground with everyone else! It's so lonely here on the intellectual high ground! The trouble is, the only way off the intellectual high ground is via a proper scare that's not only redolent with misanthropy, but based in fact.
I enjoyed this video, particularly the second half:
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-6393326099470628258
Nemesis
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Tom - you are welcome to your intellectual high ground, I'm not sure I'd want to share it with you (I'll be in the pub instead, may as well go enjoying myself) obviously all who post here apart from you have the intellects of pygmies.
Or maybe some just have more important places to argue and things which have to be done urgently and post here for a bit of light relief.
Thanks though Biff - do keep posting, I'm interested, as you know!
Or maybe some just have more important places to argue and things which have to be done urgently and post here for a bit of light relief.
Thanks though Biff - do keep posting, I'm interested, as you know!
Penners
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I'm trying to work out whether that's a compliment or an insult.... :?Nemesis said:all who post here apart from you have the intellects of pygmies.
Nemesis
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Penners - don't you start losing your sense or irony or we really are doomed.
Penners
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Any debate on any topic can be interesting and stimulating. But it doesn't lend credibility to a speaker if his very first "statement of fact" is incorrect.tom.harrigan said:I enjoyed this video http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=-6393326099470628258
The video starts with Prof. Patrick Michaels of the University of Virginia telling us that Greenland was so-called because it was green around the coasts.
Greenland was discovered by Eiríkur the Red - an Icelander - who claimed it (in around 1000AD) and wanted it developed as his own realm. So despite its overwhelming whiteness, he called it Greenland in order to con people into going there to settle.
Just a matter of interest, his son Leifur is said to have been the first European to land on the North American continent.
Penners
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Irony? That's far too intellekshul for me.Nemesis said:Penners - don't you start losing your sense or irony or we really are doomed.
Failed humour is more my line.
Nemesis
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Of course, those who deny climate change etc can be countered by others too. There's that film made recently for example.
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=2078944470709189270
The US is an odd place you know. Read Bill Bryson's Notes from a Big Country - I've just been re-reading it today, the part about climate change. In fact most of it. Very odd place indeed. In some places they think Darwin was wrong, and teach creationism as a truth apparently. Now I can't say that Adam and Eve and the creation of the earth in seven days wasn't fact, but it does strike me as unlikely, really.
As all who have attended university will testify, just cos someone is employed by one doesn't make them always right of course. I have evidence to support this statement.
A close friend comes from Virginia. In fact attended the University of Virginia. Just thought I'd mention that. Totally irrelevant really.
http://video.google.co.uk/videoplay?docid=2078944470709189270
Mmmmm.Just because GW stopped in 1998
The US is an odd place you know. Read Bill Bryson's Notes from a Big Country - I've just been re-reading it today, the part about climate change. In fact most of it. Very odd place indeed. In some places they think Darwin was wrong, and teach creationism as a truth apparently. Now I can't say that Adam and Eve and the creation of the earth in seven days wasn't fact, but it does strike me as unlikely, really.
As all who have attended university will testify, just cos someone is employed by one doesn't make them always right of course. I have evidence to support this statement.
A close friend comes from Virginia. In fact attended the University of Virginia. Just thought I'd mention that. Totally irrelevant really.
tom.harrigan
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So, no one is impressed by the solar cycles found in mud cores in Effingham inlet. I just think it's amazing that solar cycles might find echoes in the mud over time scales as little as 11yrs.
I have more bad news for the misanthropists. If this paper is correct we are saved!
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf
I have more bad news for the misanthropists. If this paper is correct we are saved!
http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/steve/pubs/HeatCapacity.pdf
Nemesis
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Is it correct?
Penners
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Phew! I was worried there for a minute.
biffvernon
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Steady on Penners. Tom has clearly not understood the paper by Stephen E. Schwartz. Exactly the opposite conclusion to "If this paper is correct we are saved!" is appropriate.
Schwartz's main area of research is in the climate forcing of aerosols. Basically, his position is that we've chucked out a lot of dirty smoke which is shading the planet and keeping us cool, masking the warming effect of greenhouse gasses such as CO2. Without this dirt the things would warm up faster. And it gets worse. The dirt hangs about for just a week or so while the CO2 stays for centuries, accumulating. As time goes by we have to chuck out more and more pollution to keep the cooling effect going.
In Schwartz's own words,
Schwartz's main area of research is in the climate forcing of aerosols. Basically, his position is that we've chucked out a lot of dirty smoke which is shading the planet and keeping us cool, masking the warming effect of greenhouse gasses such as CO2. Without this dirt the things would warm up faster. And it gets worse. The dirt hangs about for just a week or so while the CO2 stays for centuries, accumulating. As time goes by we have to chuck out more and more pollution to keep the cooling effect going.
In Schwartz's own words,
So if the cooling influence of aerosols is in fact offsetting much of the warming influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, then when society is unable to maintain this exponential growth, the climate could be in for a real and long-lasting shock.
Nemesis
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I think Penners meant he could no longer be a GOM...
It's OK Penners - carry on as before.
It's OK Penners - carry on as before.
tom.harrigan
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For those who did not get as far as half way through the abstract:
"The resultant equilibrium climate sensitivity, 0.30 ± 0.14K/(W m-2), corresponds to an equilibrium temperature increase
for doubled CO2 of 1.1 ± 0.5 K."
About 3x smaller than the IPCC figures. We've already warmed bu 0.7K since pre-industrial times, so we can expect an extra 0.4K by the time we double CO2. It won't be noticeable.
T
"The resultant equilibrium climate sensitivity, 0.30 ± 0.14K/(W m-2), corresponds to an equilibrium temperature increase
for doubled CO2 of 1.1 ± 0.5 K."
About 3x smaller than the IPCC figures. We've already warmed bu 0.7K since pre-industrial times, so we can expect an extra 0.4K by the time we double CO2. It won't be noticeable.
T
Nemesis
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Bill Bryson is interesting too on how unreliable a great deal of research carried out in the US is.
tom.harrigan
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The great failure that was quantum electrodynamics springs to mind.
T
T
Nemesis
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He's interesting to have a drink with too.
I'm not sure you would be Tom.
I'm not sure you would be Tom.
tom.harrigan
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Interestingly, Vermont Castings, the famous manufacturer of cast iron stoves guarantees its cast iron stoves like this one:
Dutch West Cast Iron Small -- FOR 3 YEARS!!!!!
http://www.vermontcastings.com/content/products/productdetails.cfm?id=312
The same company guarantees this one:
Dutch West Plate Steel Small -- FOR LIFE !!!!!
I rest my case.
T
Dutch West Cast Iron Small -- FOR 3 YEARS!!!!!
http://www.vermontcastings.com/content/products/productdetails.cfm?id=312
The same company guarantees this one:
Dutch West Plate Steel Small -- FOR LIFE !!!!!
I rest my case.
T
tom.harrigan
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oops - wrong thread - sorry!
Nemesis
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tom.harrigan said:Interestingly, Vermont Castings, the famous manufacturer of cast iron stoves guarantees its cast iron stoves like this one:
Dutch West Cast Iron Small -- FOR 3 YEARS!!!!!
http://www.vermontcastings.com/content/products/productdetails.cfm?id=312
The same company guarantees this one:
Dutch West Plate Steel Small -- FOR LIFE !!!!!
I rest my case.
T
oops - wrong thread - sorry!
I suggest before posting in future you engage brain.
And read those warranties carefully.