Why we need to think before we build

[Lime]

Well, I've just followed the link as suggested:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

clicked on seasonal totals for England and Wales and not much change since 1766 as far as I can see.

Looking at the data makes me even more convinced that we are all being taken for a ride.

Take a look for yourself, it is there in black and white.
(well grey actually )

 

[Nemesis]

Are you talking over the year or in a short space of time, as happened with the flooding? Over a year I can cope with - flooding owing to major rainfall in a short space of time isn't a great laugh. Ask all those who suffered it.

Trouble is of course, if all this is man made and no changes are made we are DOOMED is I think the word.

But there you go. I recall all those scientists telling us for years smoking was positively good for you.


Provisional figures from the Met Office show that 387.6 mm of rain have already fallen across England and Wales, making it the wettest May to July since the England and Wales Precipitation record began in 1766.


More rain came after that.

 

[Lime]

I'm talking about the figures in the link:


http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html


Looking at the figures I can see nothing unusual about the last few years at all.

Once again I ask, take a look.
There are plenty of years that have had high rainfall all the way back to 1766.
Even the seasonal variation does not appear to be changing in any marked degree.

If climate change was really happening I'd expect a marked change in average rainfall between 1766 and now (241 years) and there isn't a change!

 

[Gareth Hughes]

Records are certainly there to be broken and I'm not convinced that occasional, exceptionally severe weather conditions are necessarily in themselves evidence of ongoing climate change. But climate change is happening, and we know this in part thanks to records kept by someone in my neck of the woods:

http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/science/Phenologys+founding+father.htm

 

[Nemesis]

If climate change was really happening I'd expect a marked change in average rainfall between 1766 and now (241 years) and there isn't a change!

I understand the argument to be that we are now having more extremes of weather, which seems certainly the case this year.

I have never experienced so many near floods and then a flood in summer.

Winter we have had near misses, but that's been snow melt from the fells coupled with heavy rain.

 

[NT]

I wrote:
It's very unusual for an equilibrium to exhibit changes, whether it is dynamical or not.

NT wrote:
Whatever gives you that idea?

Well, it's sort of a matter of definition. That's probably where I got the idea from. An equilibrium is generally regarded as a state with net change of zero for whatever reason. Please list some of the classes of system in equilibrium which exhibit changes in some state variable. Or, to put it another way, please list some things in equilibrium that are not in equilibrium.

Maybe time to question that definition.

OK, in autumn, house temperature is a dynamic equilibrium, with heat coming in and heat going out. The equilibrium point is perhaps 20 C. But when the programmable thermostat changes to 17C at night, the temp changes to a new equilibrium.

Lightbulb filaments... dynamic equilibrium... 2700C. Over time the filament thins in patches, and the equilibrium shifts, both there and elsewhere laong the filament.

There are a zillion examples of dynamic equilibria that dont stay at a steady value for all eternity.


NT

 

[Penners]

in autumn, house temperature is a dynamic equilibrium, with heat coming in and heat going out. The equilibrium point is perhaps 20 C.

Flippin' 'eck - 20 degrees C in autumn? I want to move to wherever you live.

 

[NT]

Does your heating need sorting Penners? Judging by Bruhhilde's industrial knickers, I guess it does.


NT

 

[DaveBrigg]

Those of a non-scientific mind need to bear in mind that average rainfall has not changed - there is no problem.
If this is hard to understand, consider the following metaphor.
The gentleman who lives in the house below had a dodgy central heating system. One night the temperture dropped to -15 for 10 hours and he lost both his hands to frostbite.

While lighting the stove the next morning with his wrists he dropped the matches, causing the result in the picture. His bedroom reached a temperature of 1000C for half an hour. The average temperature of his property was therefore about 35 degrees - lucky man. Although someone called the fire brigade there was really no need, since the heat released by letting his house burn to the ground would be balanced by him having to sleep in the shed for six weeks until the insurance money came through.

These drivers in Sheffield should stop moaning and keep in mind that although their homes are underwater now, it will barely rain at all between November and April.

 

[Penners]

Ah, yes.

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

W. S. Churchill

 

[Nemesis]

Yes - if I look at all I drink over a year, and try to cram that into just a few days, I think it would be called more than a binge.

I think I might be in some trouble, healthwise.

As I said above - it's pretty alarming when it happens all at once midsummer.

Still, it will probably average itself out over the year - we may even be able to say the year was not as wet as some on record. That's a comforting thought now.

 

[Penners]

Is the above picture Nemesis Towers?

 

[Nemesis]

It was once the bit of track leading to it...

It got worse after that, but pics were the last thing on my mind!

 

[NT]

Ah, yes.

"There are lies, damned lies and statistics".

W. S. Churchill

The problem with statistics really lies in people not properly understanding them.


NT

 

[Nemesis]

Wilfully at times...

 

[Lime]

Those of a non-scientific mind need to bear in mind that average rainfall has not changed

And those of a nonscientific mind need to bear in mind that has always happened even back in 1776.

Days of deluge have always happened every year somewhere in the UK.
That is why an average is taken to give it all meaning.
The idea is to be objective and not rely on the subjective experience of mankind.

The problem with statistics really lies in people not properly understanding them

That is part of the problem.

 

[Nemesis]

The idea is to be objective and not rely on the subjective experience of mankind.

Ah yes - those subjective experiences like summer floods and drowning!

I understand statistics, and I suspect most posting here understand them too.

 

[Penners]

The problem with statistics really lies in people not properly understanding them.

Actually, I think that the biggest problem with statistics lies in people believing them.

 

[Nemesis]

I'm currently writing a document where I am using statistics.

I am of course quoting those which prove the point I wish to make.

 

[DaveBrigg]

42% of statistics on the internet are made up anyway.