Why we need to think before we build

[biffvernon]

1947.

That was a very different situation. There had been a build up of water over several weeks - in the form of snow. Then it warmed up and rained - whoosh, etc.

 

[Nemesis]

Well you may say that but I couldn't possibly comment. :wink:

Re the flooding - yes, it was a very bad year for snow.

A long hard winter.

This year, the Talbot flooded twice in mid summer - four feet at the second flood - the Aga was submerged.

We got flooded too, but not that badly.

 

[biffvernon]

http://www.the-talbot.co.uk/

 

[Nemesis]

PS it's still going to be Nemesis for the Talbot though. Hopefully the beer is OK.

 

[tom.harrigan]

What's most worrying of all is that we've just experienced the 85th coldest July in England since records began.

 

[Nemesis]

Oooh - climate change then?

 

[tom.harrigan]

Are we playing spot the tautology or what?

 

[Nemesis]

Well - something is happening to our weather patterns.

But maybe you've missed all the past posts on this.

 

[Nemesis]

It's not exactly summer is it?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6944939.stm

 

[tom.harrigan]

Well it certainly was a wet July. The only recorded wetter Julys in England and Wales were: 1828, 1834 ,1775, 1880, 1888, 1787, 1839, 1816, 1798, 1779, 1767, 1822, and 1829. July 1828 was a pretty miserable by all accounts.

 

[NT]

It's very unusual for an equilibrium to exhibit changes, whether it is dynamical or not.

Whatever gives you that idea?


NT

 

[Nemesis]

Records:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6925602.stm

England has suffered its wettest July on record, according to provisional statistics from the Met Office.
Some 129mm (5.07in) of rain fell up to 29 July, beating the previous record of 126.5mm (4.98in) set in 1936.

 

[tom.harrigan]

I wrote:
It's very unusual for an equilibrium to exhibit changes, whether it is dynamical or not.

NT wrote:
Whatever gives you that idea?

Well, it's sort of a matter of definition. That's probably where I got the idea from. An equilibrium is generally regarded as a state with net change of zero for whatever reason. Please list some of the classes of system in equilibrium which exhibit changes in some state variable. Or, to put it another way, please list some things in equilibrium that are not in equilibrium.

 

[Lime]

the second wettest on record.

beating the previous record set in 1936.

So it's not the wettest for some time.


I was talking to a retired farmer recently about rainfall (and he should know) and he can't understand all the fuss being made.
He says he remembers picking various fruits in all temperatures and weathers and "summers have always been like this" (unpredictable).

 

[Nemesis]

Record-breaking rainfall figures
The Met Office today can reveal the three months from May to July 2007 have broken records for this period, even before July is over.

Provisional figures from the Met Office show that 387.6 mm of rain have already fallen across England and Wales, making it the wettest May to July since the England and Wales Precipitation record began in 1766.



http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2007/pr20070726.html

Wettest in England, second wettest in the UK I think the BBC link you quoted said?

One recent evening saw our burn rise several feet and flood in the space of less than an hour.

Not in living memory has that happened.

 

[tom.harrigan]

Nemesis wrote:

Records:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6925602.stm

This is hilarious! The data is publicly available from the Met Office Hadley Centre:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt

What are you trying to prove? I'm _only_ quoting the actual figures.

The article you link to is a classic example of alarmism, designed worry the innumerate.

Check out all the data for yourself:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

 

[Nemesis]

This a Press Office Press Release from the Met Office:

News release
26 July 2007
Record-breaking rainfall figures
The Met Office today can reveal the three months from May to July 2007 have broken records for this period, even before July is over.

Provisional figures from the Met Office show that 387.6 mm of rain have already fallen across England and Wales, making it the wettest May to July since the England and Wales Precipitation record began in 1766.

These figures will come as no surprise to many across England and Wales who have suffered flooding from the exceptionally heavy rainfall experienced in June and July.

The extreme rainfall in June, where 103.1 mm (4.1 inches) of rain fell in 24 hours at Fylingdales, North Yorkshire was followed by a similar event in July when Pershore College in Worcestershire recorded 120.8 mm (4.8 inches) of rain on 20 July. Both events resulted in extensive flooding across parts of England and Wales.

Recent Met Office research undertaken in partnership with Environment Canada has shown, for the first time, a link between human activity and global rainfall patterns. Peter Stott, climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre said: "This latest study cannot make the link between climate change and what we have experienced so far this summer. However, with a warmer climate there could be an increase in extreme rainfall events despite the expected general trend toward drier summers."

The Met Office works with government, the public and the private sector to forecast and advise on the possible consequences and risks of climate change. With the 'normal' baselines changing, we all need to seek advice to make informed planning decisions and begin to put in place adaptation measures to meet the challenges posed by climate change.

Rainfall figures for England, Wales and regions
Region May-22 July 2007 -
actual May-July
1971-2000 average May-22 July 2007 - anomaly Wettest May-July in series Additional information on May-July period
England & Wales 387.6 mm 186.3 mm 208% 2007 Previous wettest 349.1 mm in 1789
Central England 348.3 mm 153.9 mm 226% 2007 Previous wettest 296.9 mm in 1879
NE England 368.9 mm 170.1 mm 217% 2007 Previous wettest 307.5 mm in 1879
SW England & S Wales 381.8 mm 178.2 mm 214% 2007 Previous wettest 345.1 mm in 1879
NW England & N Wales 374.7 mm 197.7 mm 190% 2007 Previous wettest 353.6 mm in 1920
SE England 287.6 mm 153.3 mm 188% 292.5 mm in 1903 Already the 2nd wettest

Note: England and Wales record starts in 1766, other regions in 1873

Summer 2007 forecast

For further information:
Met Office Press Office +44 (0)1392 886655
E-mail: pressoffice@metoffice.gov.uk

Met Office Customer Centre 0870 900 0100
If you're outside the UK +44 (0)1392 885680

 

[Nemesis]

Nemesis wrote:

Records:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6925602.stm

This is hilarious! The data is publicly available from the Met Office Hadley Centre:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_qc.txt

What are you trying to prove? I'm _only_ quoting the actual figures.

The article you link to is a classic example of alarmism, designed worry the innumerate.

Check out all the data for yourself:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

So - something doesn't add up does it, if you read the Met Office Press Release?

Maybe just being alarmist and trying to scare us all then.

 

[tom.harrigan]

There's nothing wrong with the Met Office press release. It certainly felt like the most miserable May-July of all time, and the measurements back up my perceptions. However, looking on the bright side, as soon as you add in the previous months, the year to date does not appear so alarming.

 

[Nemesis]

It's pretty alarming when it happens all at once mid summer.

So you, I gather, think climate change has not a lot to do with global warming and none if it has anything much to do with mankind and its activities?