Why we need to think before we build

[biffvernon]

The image shows the current amount of ice (the purple bit!) A record loss this year.

Discussion on RealClimate

 

[Penners]

What really hits home is when you read that the additional loss "is around 1.2 million square km of ice, a little bit larger than the size of California and Texas combined".

 

[NT]

Variations are normal for dynamic equilibria

NT

 

[Penners]

Variations are normal for dynamic equilibria

NT

Isn't that a contradiction in terms? Surely something is either in equilibrium or it's dynamic.

 

[NT]

The ice is both melting and freezing at the same time. You can see this if you watch a picture of the whole ice system sped up. This i why pictures of ice melting are so meaningless.


NT

 

[NT]

Variations are normal for dynamic equilibria

NT

Isn't that a contradiction in terms? Surely something is either in equilibrium or it's dynamic.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dynamic_equilibrium

 

[Penners]

I concede!

 

[tom.harrigan]

So, according to RealClimate, the warmest year on record in the US is now 1934, and five out of the ten warmest years on record occurred before the 2nd world war! Thanks for the link.

It's very unusual for an equilibrium to exhibit changes, whether it is dynamical or not.

 

[biffvernon]

Tom, why do you give that very selective statistic, instead of reporting what the scientists who run RealClimate are actually saying?

The piece about the Arctic Ice is a bit further down the page but you can get to directlyhere.

Penners, don't concede too quickly. When the ice cube in your whisky has all melted you know that it will only get warmer if you do nothing. Time to drink up.

The National Snow and Ice Data Centre provide the more first hand information of the disaster unfolding in the Arctic.

 

[biffvernon]

sorry - double post

 

[biffvernon]

techi-glitch

 

[tom.harrigan]

Well, the story was at the top of the page at the time, and I found the spin on the temperature record adjustments quite amusing. I also happen to think the adjustments worth commenting on in an off-topic thread that's trying to scare us all with a picture of some ice.

Some people might think that global warming would be a good thing. It could open up vast areas of uninhabitable land, and herald a new millennium of abundance and diversity. Just think of all the period homes we could build in the Siberian wilderness...

 

[Nemesis]

I don't think it's off topic - I've just been looking at pics of the Talbot Inn at Knightwick under flood.

It's a fairly period property...

Instant period homes, eh?

Well, that's an unusual concept.

 

[Penners]

Penners, don't concede too quickly. When the ice cube in your whisky has all melted you know that it will only get warmer if you do nothing. Time to drink up.

Phew - just in time!

Actually I was experimenting to see whether the evaporated whisky in the atmosphere would re-condense in the glass.

No such luck.

 

[tom.harrigan]

Are you saying that the ice conditions at the north pole and the flood conditions at the Talbot Inn are related?

 

[Nemesis]

No, I wouldn't be so foolish as to say such a thing on this forum. It leads to long threads of argument which end up deleted.

I coudn't possibly comment. Not on the effects of global warming.

Are you saying we can build instant period properties?

It's a novel idea.

 

[biffvernon]

The temperature record adjustments may have been quite amusing and perhaps even a little embarrassing for some, but the RealClimate article was showing how they make absolutely no statistically significant difference to the fact that the world is warming up and that it is our fault.

The trouble with global warming opening up the vast uninhabitable areas of permafrost, allowing, in time, period properties in Siberia, is that the release of methane from those bogs leads to the biggest risk of the tipping point to runaway warming. There will then be no-one to appreciate those period homes.

 

[tom.harrigan]

Instant period properties? Is this a pathetic attempt to find a flaw in my sarcasm? Was the Talbot Inn ever flooded before?

 

[Nemesis]

1947.

Sarcasm? Oh - not ironic wit then.

I don't however consider it off topic.

 

[biffvernon]

Are you saying that the ice conditions at the north pole and the flood conditions at the Talbot Inn are related?

Oh but they absolutely are. It's the same unusual path of the jet stream and air masses that allowed warm air from the western Pacific to move northwards, warming the Arctic and displacing cold Arctic air southwards on our side of the globe. Notice from the Picture that the ice is intact our side of the Arctic and we've been having nights that have been relatively cool this summer. The jet stream allowed depressions that at this time of year usually pass across Scotland and further north, to cross southern Britain., getting the soil nice and wet. Then when a pulse of hot humid air from the Med pushed over up and over the cold arctic air, whoosh, nemesis for the Talbot Inn.