New Year Honours

[DaveBrigg]

Time for me to fess up and admit that we've put coal into our stove this week. Two years ago we could buy a truck load of seasoned wood for £60. Last year the price went up to £80, and after the first delivery the wood stopped being seasoned. We last ordered some in mid-December and are still awaiting delivery, and the supplier says that he cannot get hold of any more. I could lop a few branches off a very large sycamore out the back, but I rather like the tree (and it's in the neighbour's plot). If we are going to replace fossil fuels with biomass, someone had better start exporting logs to North Lincs.

 

[Flyfisher]

We reach the situation which occurred at the end-Permian, 251 million years ago. We know it can happen because it has happened. 95% of life went extinct that time. Why should humans not go extinct next time?

Because we have technology, unlike any other species.

What, exactly, were the end-Permian climatic conditions that would mean H.Sapiens couldn't survive? I agree the climate might not support 9 billion people but why couldn't tens of millions live fairly comfortably, assuming a decent energy supply of some sort?

Time for me to fess up and admit that we've put coal into our stove this week.

Interesting point. Logs seem to vary enormously in price and quality but are always seem much more expensive than coal. I think they provide a good example of the practicality of 'alternative energy' sources; they work well for a few people, especially those fortunate to have access to free wood or their own land to grow trees, but they don't scale-up very well. Same with wind-power and growing your own food. Fine for low-density living but hopeless on a city-scale. And that's the problem that fossil fuels have given us - the ability to build and populate high-density cities, which we have done in spectacular fashion, based on high-energy-density fuels.

 

[biffvernon]

just to throw a spanner in the works , global warming may be worse than we suspect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming

It's a big unknown. Aerosols produced by our pollution certainly have a dimming effect and global warming could speed up if we have cleaner air. We actually don't have a good quantitative measure of this effect. There were proposals several years ago for satellite based instruments that could give us the answer but it did not suit the US Government to make this study a priority so the project never got the funding. It's a serious gap in the science. When we eventually find out, the answer will probably not be pretty.

 

[biffvernon]

What, exactly, were the end-Permian climatic conditions that would mean H.Sapiens couldn't survive? I agree the climate might not support 9 billion people but why couldn't tens of millions live fairly comfortably, assuming a decent energy supply of some sort?

We don't really know what the end-Permian looked like, but most of the creatures certainly died. A large proportion of the landmass was covered in hot dry desert, and much of the oceans probably became an-oxic. If it happens again we could assume that most of the biomass would burn. Not good for farming and feeding those 'tens of millions living fairly comfortably.'

But the end-Permian is not the half of it. Life did, just, survive that time.

Here's what Hansen published last month:

"After the ice is gone, would Earth proceed to the Venus syndrome, a runaway greenhouse effect that would destroy all life on the planet, perhaps permanently? While that is difficult to say based on present information, I've come to conclude that if we burn all reserves of oil, gas and coal, there is a substantial chance we will initiate the runaway greenhouse. If we also burn the tar sands and oil shale, I believe the Venus syndrome is a dead certainty."

Remember the Venus syndrome, refers to the fact that Venus has a surface temperature of 450C as a result of the greenhouse gas effect of CO2.

Maybe you don't believe Hansen? You'd better have some hard science to back up your beliefs or it might be wiser to stop burning coal.

 

[Flyfisher]

OK. You win. We're doomed.

Silent Running anyone?