Period Weather Forecasting

[FamilyWiggs]

From the Ration Book thread:

You ( we !!) may have to stock up if the predicted weather forecast from thursday untill the middle of january is correct :shock:

Middi

I was perusing the MetOffice's predictions of Arctic Armageddon for later this week earlier today (but not last night on YeSTERDAY 8) )

Apparently, "there is a 60%, or SEVERE, risk of Heavy Snow in N Wales on Thursday".

What does this mean? Questions I have include:

* Why is 60% judged as "severe", when it is only a little more than evens?

* What is Heavy Snow? Surely it all weighs pretty much the same? Will it melt into Heavy Water and can I power the house for free with it?

* Why 60%. Is that heavy Snow for 60% of the time on Thursday? Or will 60% of the snow that falls on Thursday be heavy. Is that 60% of a lot of snow overall or a little bit of snow?

* What is the other 40% likelihood? That it doesn't snow at all? That it snows but more heavily than "Heavy"? That it snows heavily but not on Thursday? That it does (or doesn't) snow (heavily or otherwise) but not in N Wales?

* If it doesn't snow, what will the 40% weather be - rain, sleet, glorious sunshine, fog, or will there simply be no weather at all on Thursday?

These weather forecast statements are now meaningless. Should I take 60% of my snow-clothing with me when I set out for work in the car - ie one welly, one glove but a whole scarf?

Please can we bring back Period Weather Forecasting - Michael Fish in his socks,with a rotating wood/cardboard map of the British Isles to which he applied magnetic weather symbols - with less than half a dozen to cover the whole country.

 

[Flyfisher]

It comes to something when we have to forecast what the forecast means.

How about 60% referring to the land area, i.e. there will be heavy snow over 60% of North Wales? This would equate to there being a 60% chance of heavy snow falling in any particular bit of N Wales. So you might only have a bit-above-even chance of any snow, but if it happens it'll be severe.

Anyone care to forecast the accuracy of my forecast about the weather forecast? :lol:

Actually, I always thought Welsh weather was very reliable. I remember being told an unfailing forecasting method by a Welshman on a beach in Mid-Wales. He pointed south, to the tip of Cardigan Bay and said if it was visible to the naked eye then it was going to rain . . . . and if it wasn't visible then it was already raining. :wink:

 

[Pford75]

Brought to you by the government agency which employs nearly 2000 people with our taxes and paid them millions of pounds in bonuses!

http://www.metro.co.uk/news/815115-met-office-staff-get-12m-bonuses


And which is predicting that this winter will be mild....
http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view...t-OfficeWinter-to-be-mild-predicts-Met-Office

 

[Flyfisher]

But think of the bonuses if they got the weather right! :wink:

 

[robgil]

No body would buy the weather forecast if it wasn't over dramatic. Icy cold blasts and Arctic weather means its winter time and scorching heat with dangerously hot temperatures means its the summer.
Stay in your homes , stock up on blankets and soup and for gods sake stay out of the weather, its bad for you.

 

[FamilyWiggs]

Not sure if it is true, but I once heard that the oodles of cash and computing power used by the Met Office had increased the accuracy of their next day forecasts to something like 90%. However, had they simply forecast tomorrow's weather to be pretty much like today's, then they'd have been right 75% of the time.

All that money and computing for a 15% improvement in forecasts... :roll:

 

[LadyArowana]

At least you have weather, interesting weather, pity us poor tropical types, every single day the same. Expected high of 30 degrees, overnight low 24, chance of thunderstorms and heavy rain in late afternoon. I don't think there is a met office, someone just photocopies a bit of paper that was written when we split from Malaysia. Sunrise and sunset almost the same every day too. Anyone want to pop over for a visit?

 

[Penners]

Anyone care to forecast the accuracy of my forecast about the weather forecast?

I'd say... oooh... about 60%.

 

[FamilyWiggs]

Anyone care to forecast the accuracy of my forecast about the weather forecast?

I'd say... oooh... about 60%.

Ooh Penners -that's a bit severe!